What have I done? "Police On My Back" - The Clash
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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74–28 on winners spread MAE 10.5 102 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Delaware @ Saint Peter's +4.4 143.9 67% 64–72 ✓
Akron @ Yale +5.7 162.2 67% 58–74 ✓
Holy Cross @ Siena +4.8 130.9 71% 78–70 ✗
Longwood @ North Carolina Central +1.8 142.3 54% 82–67 ✗
App State @ North Texas +15.6 123.5 88% 64–68 ✓
St. John's @ Providence -3.1 143.8 35% 72–70 ✓
Cincinnati @ Dayton +1.5 134.1 54% 66–59 ✗
Jackson State @ UTEP +14.9 139.4 88% 61–67 ✓
Florida A&M @ BYU +27.6 147.9 91% 57–103 ✓
Southern @ Loyola Marymount +4.0 134.0 64% 73–89 ✓
Duke @ Georgia Tech -13.7 138.0 16% 82–56 ✓
North Florida @ Florida +23.6 164.4 90% 45–99 ✓
Marquette @ Xavier -1.5 151.5 36% 72–70 ✓
UConn @ Butler -3.4 142.9 33% 78–74 ✓
South Carolina State @ Northern Kentucky +3.7 136.0 67% 47–58 ✓
SMU @ Boston College -9.2 146.2 21% 103–77 ✓
Vermont @ Dartmouth +2.1 133.3 59% 54–84 ✓
Princeton @ Rutgers +3.7 150.4 63% 83–82 ✗
Penn State @ Drexel -7.3 145.9 21% 75–64 ✓
Chattanooga @ Indiana +15.9 150.7 88% 65–74 ✓
Syracuse @ Maryland +21.4 154.6 90% 60–87 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Saint Joseph's +4.5 137.5 71% 62–82 ✓
Mississippi State @ Memphis +0.3 153.3 43% 79–66 ✗
Fairfield @ Monmouth +2.6 141.7 62% 74–88 ✓
UMBC @ Marist +6.7 144.2 75% 73–76 ✓
Maine @ Stony Brook -3.2 137.3 38% 72–74 ✗
Saint Francis @ Robert Morris +6.7 140.7 74% 77–90 ✓
Navy @ Coppin State -3.6 137.1 35% 60–68 ✗
Lehigh @ Long Island University +1.6 142.4 52% 60–59 ✗
Hampton @ Loyola Maryland +2.9 138.8 63% 76–68 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Central Connecticut +9.2 135.6 79% 80–84 ✓
Manhattan @ Presbyterian +5.2 146.3 67% 86–81 ✗
Niagara @ St. Bonaventure +19.6 129.8 90% 52–71 ✓
Youngstown State @ South Carolina Upstate -6.1 150.4 24% 72–64 ✓
Sam Houston @ Pittsburgh +20.3 154.5 90% 78–110 ✓
Lamar @ Texas Tech +16.5 136.9 88% 57–101 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Houston +24.0 135.0 90% 51–87 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Michigan State +14.1 157.9 86% 69–86 ✓
Wake Forest @ Clemson +12.1 133.1 86% 62–73 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Eastern Kentucky +4.3 147.8 69% 91–80 ✗
Louisville @ Florida State +2.3 147.3 62% 90–76 ✗
Boston University @ UMass Lowell +6.5 141.4 74% 71–83 ✓
Chicago State @ Cal State Northridge +22.0 149.4 91% 57–81 ✓
Wright State @ Eastern Michigan -2.2 146.4 47% 82–86 ✗
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Bowling Green -2.6 153.7 34% 93–68 ✓
Evansville @ Ball State +4.1 138.4 64% 43–80 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Kansas City -2.6 138.2 41% 66–73 ✗
High Point @ Southern Illinois +1.7 140.9 54% 94–81 ✗
Mercer @ Winthrop +6.9 158.5 77% 97–102 ✓
UNC Asheville @ UNC Wilmington +6.0 147.5 78% 74–85 ✓
UT Arlington @ Liberty +14.7 144.6 86% 56–79 ✓
UAlbany @ Fordham +5.4 152.0 72% 83–87 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Miami +10.8 147.8 77% 78–74 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Minnesota +11.3 139.4 86% 60–74 ✓
James Madison @ South Alabama +1.3 135.1 55% 49–77 ✓
Georgia State @ Troy +11.1 144.1 87% 57–77 ✓
Canisius @ Bradley +23.6 141.4 91% 59–92 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Arkansas +26.5 154.8 91% 67–95 ✓
UC Irvine @ Duquesne -6.8 128.9 25% 54–70 ✗
North Carolina @ UCLA +4.8 148.8 63% 76–74 ✗
UC Davis @ Pepperdine +2.4 140.0 55% 46–85 ✓
UC Riverside @ UNLV +5.3 140.5 69% 53–66 ✓
East Texas A&M @ South Florida +7.4 142.8 75% 62–88 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ East Carolina +6.0 144.3 76% 84–79 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Tulsa +18.1 132.5 89% 48–93 ✓
Austin Peay @ Vanderbilt +24.1 141.0 91% 55–85 ✓
Furman @ Harvard -4.7 131.7 27% 77–63 ✓
Marshall @ Southern Miss -2.0 144.1 49% 66–68 ✗
Old Dominion @ UL Monroe +3.2 143.2 60% 80–75 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ Arkansas State +10.1 137.6 83% 67–97 ✓
Bellarmine @ Colorado +23.2 147.9 91% 55–79 ✓
Air Force @ Boise State +18.6 133.6 89% 59–77 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Texas State +8.7 145.4 82% 61–83 ✓
Tennessee State @ Morehead State +3.2 150.7 62% 68–74 ✓
Lafayette @ Portland -1.8 143.0 45% 64–74 ✗
Texas Southern @ Abilene Christian +11.3 144.8 82% 65–69 ✓
Central Michigan @ Arizona +21.0 148.7 90% 41–94 ✓
Samford @ Alabama A&M -11.0 158.2 16% 97–90 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Southern Utah +5.7 145.3 67% 83–75 ✗
Idaho @ Pacific +3.9 138.2 64% 95–72 ✗
Washington State @ Northern Iowa +1.4 145.5 56% 76–68 ✗
DePaul @ Northwestern +9.0 138.8 79% 64–84 ✓
Arizona State @ Massachusetts -9.1 149.4 23% 78–62 ✓
Villanova @ Creighton +3.0 146.2 59% 79–86 ✓
Purdue @ Auburn +14.7 148.2 85% 69–87 ✓
UT Martin @ Southern Indiana +6.1 144.5 70% 77–46 ✗
Western Illinois @ Lindenwood +1.2 134.5 59% 65–71 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Southeast Missouri State +1.7 139.7 57% 64–80 ✓
Queens University @ Ole Miss +25.1 149.0 91% 62–80 ✓
South Dakota @ Santa Clara +12.9 162.7 87% 81–98 ✓
Colorado State @ Nevada +10.9 142.4 84% 66–64 ✗
California Baptist @ Fresno State +0.3 151.4 45% 86–69 ✗
Bethune-Cookman @ Davidson +11.7 143.1 85% 63–76 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Denver -2.5 156.8 42% 82–75 ✓
Kentucky @ Ohio State +1.5 161.7 41% 65–85 ✓
Green Bay @ Drake +20.5 135.2 90% 62–72 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Florida International +7.7 143.4 73% 69–75 ✓
Montana @ San Francisco +16.6 145.4 89% 67–71 ✓
VMI @ Richmond +5.0 144.1 72% 71–78 ✓
Jacksonville @ UCF +9.9 147.8 84% 66–86 ✓
Utah @ Iowa +5.6 157.6 69% 88–95 ✓
Temple @ Rhode Island +7.4 149.8 76% 79–85 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.