I got a baby's brain and an old man's heart "I'm Eighteen" - Alice Cooper
The Sobrato Center · December 21, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread SF -16.5 Away covered
O/U 147.5 Under
Money SF -4000 / MONT +1300
Model Predictions
Spread Total SF win
Actual SF +4 138 Won
Massey SF -17.6 (-13.6)
Massey Totals 145.3 (-7.3)
Bradley-Terry 87%
Weighted B-T 92%
Baseline Plus ML SF -16.6 (-12.6) 145.4 (-7.4) 89%
Baseline ML SF -16.2 (-12.2) 145.3 (-7.3) 88%
Baseline Tuned ML SF -15.6 (-11.6) 145.0 (-7.0) 88%
Efficiency Plus ML SF -14.5 (-10.5) 147.1 (-9.1) 88%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SF MONT
Overall 25-10 25-10
Conference 13-5 15-3
Home 17-2 15-1
Away 5-5 7-8
Neutral 3-3 3-1
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 76.2 75.2
Avg Pts Against 69.6 75.0
Massey 10.5 (#52) -2.9 (#215)
Bradley-Terry 1.72 (#61) 0.60 (#123)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.36 (#61) 0.77 (#126)
RPI 0.582 (#54) 0.550 (#99)
Shooting & Four Factors SF MONT
FG% 47.7% 45.4%
3PT% 36.4% 30.3%
REB / G 36.7 31.3
OREB / G 10.0 8.2
AST / TO 1.09 0.92
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.4% 51.7%
TOV% 19.3% 19.0%
ORB% 29.9% 24.7%
FT Rate 24.9% 25.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.7% 53.4%
Opp TOV% 21.1% 15.0%
DRB% 73.5% 67.5%
Opp FT Rate 19.4% 26.3%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.