Betting Lines
| Spread | NKU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | NKU -450 SCST +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NKU +11 | 105 | Won |
| Massey | NKU -3.7 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.4 (-26.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NKU -3.7 (+7.3) | 136.0 (-31.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NKU -3.8 (+7.2) | 136.4 (-31.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NKU -4.6 (+6.4) | 135.3 (-30.3) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NKU -4.4 (+6.6) | 136.9 (-31.9) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NKU | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-3 |
| Home | 12-6 | 10-2 |
| Away | 5-10 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#231) | -3.2 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#233) | -0.92 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#226) | -1.39 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#212) | 0.446 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NKU | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 34.0% |
Game Analysis
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