Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | MRST -190 UMBC +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +3 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | MRST -6.1 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (+0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -6.7 (-3.7) | 144.2 (+4.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -6.6 (-3.6) | 142.9 (+6.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -6.0 (-3.0) | 143.2 (+5.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -6.2 (-3.2) | 143.6 (+5.4) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 11, 2023 | MRST 65 – 59 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-10 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 5-11 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-9 |
| Away | 9-5 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.5 | 80.6 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#233) | -5.8 (#273) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#124) | -1.91 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#171) | -2.21 (#304) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#181) | 0.394 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 20.6% |
| FT Rate | 15.1% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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