Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | UMBC -125 MRST +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +6 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | UMBC -9.1 (-15.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.8 (-33.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -4.3 (-10.3) | 148.4 (-24.4) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -1.4 (-7.4) | 149.1 (-25.1) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2024 | MRST 76 – 73 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 12-8 |
| Home | 6-9 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-12 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 62.2 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#60) | 10.8 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#245) | 1.88 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#159) | 2.74 (#8) |
| RPI | — | 0.250 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.7% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 52.4% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 2.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.7% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 12.0% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 17.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 27.1% |
| DRB% | 53.5% | 79.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.3% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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