Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | UNLV -500 UCR +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +13 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | UNLV -7.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (-24.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -5.3 (+7.7) | 140.5 (-21.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -4.6 (+8.4) | 138.9 (-19.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -5.3 (+7.7) | 138.8 (-19.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -7.1 (+5.9) | 138.6 (-19.6) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 14-6 |
| Home | 12-5 | 14-1 |
| Away | 5-7 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 76.4 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#131) | -1.1 (#179) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#159) | 1.28 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#144) | 0.80 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#160) | 0.559 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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