Betting Lines
| Spread | ME -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | STBK +140 ME -165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STBK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STBK +2 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | ME -5.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.8 (+6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ME -3.2 (+5.2) | 137.5 (+8.5) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ME -3.7 (+5.7) | 137.6 (+8.4) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ME -2.8 (+4.8) | 139.0 (+7.0) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ME -3.2 (+5.2) | 137.3 (+8.7) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 8, 2025 | STBK 71 – 60 ME |
| Feb 13, 2022 | STBK 85 – 74 ME |
| Jan 8, 2022 | STBK 80 – 72 ME |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STBK | ME |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 10-6 |
| Home | 5-9 | 10-3 |
| Away | 3-13 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -10.7 (#336) | -1.4 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.51 (#300) | -0.01 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.33 (#309) | -0.27 (#189) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#271) | 0.497 (#173) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STBK | ME |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 29.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.4% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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