Betting Lines
| Spread | PORT -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | PORT -140 LAF +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PORT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PORT +10 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | LAF -2.8 (+12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -1.8 (+11.8) | 143.0 (-5.0) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -1.2 (+11.2) | 141.1 (-3.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -1.9 (+11.9) | 140.7 (-2.7) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -2.6 (+12.6) | 144.7 (-6.7) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PORT | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-7 | 10-6 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -12.4 (#346) | -5.3 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.97 (#324) | -0.70 (#239) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.03 (#337) | -0.94 (#236) |
| RPI | 0.409 (#316) | 0.482 (#207) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PORT | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 20.4% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.2% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.6% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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