Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | UCF -1600 JAX +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +20 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -9.8 (+10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -9.9 (+10.1) | 147.8 (+4.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -10.3 (+9.7) | 148.8 (+3.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -10.0 (+10.0) | 148.3 (+3.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -11.9 (+8.1) | 150.7 (+1.3) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2023 | UCF 94 – 52 JAX |
| Nov 17, 2021 | UCF 63 – 54 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 12-6 |
| Home | 13-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 2-8 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.8 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.4 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#102) | -1.5 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#50) | 0.47 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#54) | 1.23 (#103) |
| RPI | 0.604 (#37) | 0.563 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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