Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -15.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
| Money | UCF -1400 JAX +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +42 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -16.3 (+25.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.9 (-2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -12.9 (+29.1) | 147.0 (-1.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -13.0 (+29.0) | 146.6 (-0.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -12.7 (+29.3) | 146.5 (-0.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -15.1 (+26.9) | 144.6 (+1.4) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2024 | UCF 86 – 66 JAX |
| Nov 17, 2021 | UCF 63 – 54 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 5-11 |
| Home | 11-8 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#106) | -6.7 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#117) | 0.33 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#131) | 0.02 (#190) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#90) | 0.480 (#204) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 77.7% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.2% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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