Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -18.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | UCF -1700 JAX +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +9 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -13.9 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (-26.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -10.9 (-1.9) | 143.1 (-26.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -10.1 (-1.1) | 145.6 (-28.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -8.9 (+0.1) | 143.6 (-26.6) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2024 | UCF 86 – 66 JAX |
| Dec 7, 2023 | UCF 94 – 52 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#94) | 0.3 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.01 (#3) | 0.30 (#163) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.32 (#5) | 0.40 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#81) | 0.438 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 38.8% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 34.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.2% | 44.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 24.7% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 80.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.0% | 9.1% |
Game Analysis
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