Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | MIA -3000 MSM +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +4 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | MIA -13.1 (-17.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.4 (-4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -10.8 (-14.8) | 147.8 (+4.2) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -9.4 (-13.4) | 149.7 (+2.3) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -9.3 (-13.3) | 149.7 (+2.3) | 82% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -11.3 (-15.3) | 145.2 (+6.8) | 81% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-24 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 12-8 |
| Home | 7-10 | 10-4 |
| Away | 0-10 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#97) | -4.3 (#240) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#275) | 0.38 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#243) | -0.02 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#266) | 0.526 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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