Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | COPP +320 NAVY -420 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COPP +8 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -4.5 (+12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (-17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -5.6 (+13.6) | 136.8 (-8.8) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -3.3 (+11.3) | 136.7 (-8.7) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -3.2 (+11.2) | 136.4 (-8.4) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -3.6 (+11.6) | 137.1 (-9.1) | 35% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2025 | NAVY 88 – 55 COPP |
| Dec 3, 2023 | NAVY 75 – 52 COPP |
| Nov 15, 2022 | COPP 75 – 68 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COPP | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-24 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 5-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 1-17 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.3 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -18.5 (#362) | -9.9 (#324) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.88 (#361) | -2.73 (#346) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.59 (#362) | -3.57 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.379 (#345) | 0.340 (#359) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COPP | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.7% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 24.4% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.66 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.3% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.2% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 30.8% |
Game Analysis
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