Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
| Money | NAVY -450 COPP +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +23 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -16.1 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 112.2 (+14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -12.2 (+10.8) | 125.4 (+1.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -10.2 (+12.8) | 125.1 (+1.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -11.1 (+11.9) | 123.8 (+3.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -11.2 (+11.8) | 125.4 (+1.6) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2025 | NAVY 88 – 55 COPP |
| Dec 21, 2024 | COPP 68 – 60 NAVY |
| Nov 15, 2022 | COPP 75 – 68 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 2-27 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 1-13 |
| Home | 10-5 | 2-8 |
| Away | 3-13 | 0-17 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L13 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 57.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 72.8 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#280) | -16.1 (#359) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.68 (#336) | -3.12 (#348) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.90 (#336) | -4.07 (#340) |
| RPI | 0.337 (#356) | 0.309 (#360) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.8% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 21.1% | 25.2% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 26.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.8% | 42.8% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 55.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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