Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | NAVY -4500 COPP +1700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +33 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -24.6 (+8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (-4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -18.9 (+14.1) | 139.9 (+3.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -18.9 (+14.1) | 139.7 (+3.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -22.0 (+11.0) | 142.1 (+0.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -23.4 (+9.6) | 139.6 (+3.4) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2024 | COPP 68 – 60 NAVY |
| Dec 3, 2023 | NAVY 75 – 52 COPP |
| Nov 15, 2022 | COPP 75 – 68 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 5-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 3-6 |
| Away | 10-5 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 64.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 81.0 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#220) | -23.5 (#364) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#207) | -3.60 (#353) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#219) | -5.54 (#360) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#171) | 0.347 (#353) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 43.6% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 58.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 63.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 30.2% |
Game Analysis
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