Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -24.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | VAN -20000 APSU +3000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +30 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | VAN -22.4 (+7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.8 (-0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -24.1 (+5.9) | 141.0 (-1.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -23.1 (+6.9) | 139.3 (+0.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -20.4 (+9.6) | 139.4 (+0.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -19.5 (+10.5) | 141.3 (-1.3) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2021 | VAN 77 – 51 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#46) | -6.4 (#282) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.78 (#25) | -0.80 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.66 (#28) | -1.32 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#50) | 0.463 (#248) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.71 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 44.5% |
| TOV% | 12.6% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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