Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | UML -340 BU +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UML win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UML +12 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | UML -7.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (+5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -6.5 (+5.5) | 141.4 (+12.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -7.7 (+4.3) | 141.7 (+12.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -7.2 (+4.8) | 145.0 (+9.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UML -6.9 (+5.1) | 145.2 (+8.8) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2025 | BU 88 – 76 UML |
| Dec 22, 2023 | UML 71 – 63 BU |
| Dec 21, 2022 | UML 68 – 60 BU |
| Dec 9, 2021 | BU 72 – 62 UML |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UML | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-4 | 12-4 |
| Away | 3-11 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.1 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#202) | -5.0 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#127) | -1.41 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#121) | -1.77 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#131) | 0.419 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UML | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 33.0% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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