Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +10 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | BU -6.5 (+3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.6 (-0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -5.8 (+4.2) | 131.8 (+2.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -6.2 (+3.8) | 136.4 (-2.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BU -6.0 (+4.0) | 135.7 (-1.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BU -7.1 (+2.9) | 134.0 (-0.0) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2025 | BU 88 – 76 UML |
| Dec 21, 2024 | UML 83 – 71 BU |
| Dec 22, 2023 | UML 71 – 63 BU |
| Dec 21, 2022 | UML 68 – 60 BU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BU | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 8-8 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#127) | 0.6 (#165) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#144) | 0.41 (#148) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#132) | -0.20 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#175) | 0.524 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BU | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 25.9% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 23.1% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 23.6% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 30.2% |
Game Analysis
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