Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | BU -218 UML +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +12 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | BU -6.9 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.3 (+6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BU -4.8 (+7.2) | 144.4 (+19.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -3.6 (+8.4) | 143.0 (+21.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -4.3 (+7.7) | 146.2 (+17.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BU -4.3 (+7.7) | 147.8 (+16.2) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2024 | UML 83 – 71 BU |
| Dec 22, 2023 | UML 71 – 63 BU |
| Dec 21, 2022 | UML 68 – 60 BU |
| Dec 9, 2021 | BU 72 – 62 UML |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BU | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-7 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-12 | 5-14 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#277) | -9.5 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.83 (#312) | -1.90 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.77 (#340) | -2.68 (#319) |
| RPI | 0.408 (#315) | 0.455 (#255) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BU | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.4% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 64.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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