Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
| Money | BU +162 UML -195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UML +8 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | UML -2.4 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.5 (-1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -3.3 (-4.7) | 134.2 (-0.2) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -0.0 (-8.0) | 136.0 (-2.0) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UML -0.1 (-7.9) | 136.7 (-2.7) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -0.3 (-7.7) | 135.6 (-1.6) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2025 | BU 88 – 76 UML |
| Dec 21, 2024 | UML 83 – 71 BU |
| Dec 21, 2022 | UML 68 – 60 BU |
| Dec 9, 2021 | BU 72 – 62 UML |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BU | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-5 |
| Home | 9-7 | 12-3 |
| Away | 7-10 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#248) | 2.8 (#126) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#261) | 0.44 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#249) | 0.75 (#133) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#289) | 0.490 (#189) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BU | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 27.6% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 79.4% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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