Betting Lines
| Spread | DAV -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | DAV -1800 BCU +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAV +13 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | DAV -12.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (-4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -11.7 (+1.3) | 143.1 (-4.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -11.1 (+1.9) | 139.9 (-0.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAV -10.7 (+2.3) | 139.7 (-0.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAV -12.7 (+0.3) | 141.6 (-2.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAV | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-6 | 8-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#111) | -4.9 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#102) | -0.77 (#251) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#93) | -1.18 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#114) | 0.473 (#221) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAV | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 64.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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