Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | BGSU +135 STMN -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BGSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STMN +25 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | STMN -4.7 (-20.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.1 (+2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -2.6 (-22.4) | 153.7 (+7.3) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -2.9 (-22.1) | 152.6 (+8.4) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -4.4 (-20.6) | 151.9 (+9.1) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -3.0 (-22.0) | 150.7 (+10.3) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BGSU | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-4 |
| Home | 8-8 | 14-0 |
| Away | 5-8 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#274) | 3.1 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.76 (#314) | 0.57 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.88 (#334) | 1.04 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.372 (#348) | 0.509 (#156) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BGSU | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 57.5% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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