Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | USF -1000 ETAM +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +26 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | USF -8.5 (+17.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (+5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -7.4 (+18.6) | 142.8 (+7.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -6.5 (+19.5) | 141.7 (+8.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -6.6 (+19.4) | 140.5 (+9.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -12.2 (+13.8) | 142.7 (+7.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 5-26 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 3-17 |
| Home | 9-6 | 4-10 |
| Away | 2-10 | 1-16 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 64.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#255) | -9.4 (#316) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#227) | -1.65 (#306) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.64 (#276) | -2.61 (#323) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#224) | 0.426 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 25.3% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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