Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | NCCU +150 LONG -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +15 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | NCCU -1.1 (-16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (+5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCCU -0.4 (-15.4) | 140.5 (+8.5) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCCU -1.8 (-16.8) | 142.1 (+6.9) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCCU -2.2 (-17.2) | 142.6 (+6.4) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCCU -1.8 (-16.8) | 142.3 (+6.7) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | LONG 74 – 72 NCCU |
| Dec 14, 2024 | NCCU 77 – 70 LONG |
| Dec 20, 2023 | NCCU 79 – 70 LONG |
| Nov 18, 2023 | LONG 73 – 66 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCCU | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 6-8 | 7-9 |
| Home | 10-4 | 12-4 |
| Away | 2-13 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#269) | -2.6 (#210) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#245) | -0.06 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#260) | -0.04 (#170) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#210) | 0.451 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCCU | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 27.1% |
| REB / G | 28.2 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 33.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.7% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 23.8% |
| DRB% | 58.3% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.2% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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