Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
| Money | NCCU +196 LONG -240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCCU +9 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -5.8 (+14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.2 (+11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -5.4 (+14.4) | 137.8 (+11.2) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -4.6 (+13.6) | 137.2 (+11.8) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -5.0 (+14.0) | 137.3 (+11.7) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -4.8 (+13.8) | 139.1 (+9.9) | 33% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | LONG 74 – 72 NCCU |
| Dec 21, 2024 | LONG 82 – 67 NCCU |
| Dec 14, 2024 | NCCU 77 – 70 LONG |
| Nov 18, 2023 | LONG 73 – 66 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCCU | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 6-10 |
| Home | 11-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-9 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#273) | 4.9 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#269) | 1.35 (#70) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.55 (#280) | 1.31 (#101) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#199) | 0.513 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCCU | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 26.4% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 37.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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