Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | LONG -500 NCCU +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +7 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -23.6 (-16.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.7 (+6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -14.6 (-7.6) | 130.4 (+8.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -17.4 (-10.4) | 134.4 (+4.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -20.6 (-13.6) | 136.1 (+2.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -17.0 (-10.0) | 132.3 (+6.7) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | LONG 74 – 72 NCCU |
| Dec 21, 2024 | LONG 82 – 67 NCCU |
| Dec 14, 2024 | NCCU 77 – 70 LONG |
| Dec 20, 2023 | NCCU 79 – 70 LONG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 9-5 |
| Home | 13-3 | 11-2 |
| Away | 5-10 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#60) | -7.7 (#306) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#171) | -1.04 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#181) | -1.60 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#253) | 0.495 (#188) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 33.9% |
| 3PT% | 16.7% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 44.0 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 17.5 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.5% | 38.8% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 43.8% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 61.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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