Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | LONG -380 NCCU +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCCU +7 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | LONG -7.1 (-14.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (+3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -6.7 (-13.7) | 142.9 (+4.1) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -6.3 (-13.3) | 142.9 (+4.1) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -6.4 (-13.4) | 144.2 (+2.8) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -6.1 (-13.1) | 144.0 (+3.0) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | LONG 74 – 72 NCCU |
| Dec 21, 2024 | LONG 82 – 67 NCCU |
| Dec 20, 2023 | NCCU 79 – 70 LONG |
| Nov 18, 2023 | LONG 73 – 66 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 6-8 |
| Home | 12-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-7 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 78.8 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#234) | -6.5 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#145) | -1.09 (#267) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#151) | -2.06 (#294) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#222) | 0.456 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 26.6% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 27.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 35.2% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 56.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.6% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 57.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 33.6% |
Game Analysis
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