Betting Lines
| Spread | LIB -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | LIB -480 UTA +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIB +23 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | LIB -12.6 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (-11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIB -14.7 (+8.3) | 144.6 (-9.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIB -13.9 (+9.1) | 146.0 (-11.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIB -14.5 (+8.5) | 144.8 (-9.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIB -10.3 (+12.7) | 145.4 (-10.4) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIB | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 6-10 |
| Home | 12-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 9-2 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 75.7 |
| Massey | 8.2 (#69) | -0.2 (#162) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.32 (#34) | -0.75 (#244) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.28 (#37) | -0.75 (#221) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#62) | 0.486 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIB | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.6% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 39.9% | 39.9% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.7% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 31.0% |
Game Analysis
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