Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | MEM +110 MSST -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +13 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | MEM -1.0 (-14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.3 (-15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -1.1 (-14.1) | 149.1 (-4.1) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -3.4 (-16.4) | 152.7 (-7.7) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -1.4 (-14.4) | 151.8 (-6.8) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -0.3 (-13.3) | 153.3 (-8.3) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | MSST 71 – 66 MEM |
| Mar 28, 2021 | MEM 77 – 64 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-2 | 10-5 |
| Away | 11-2 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 12.6 (#41) | 15.8 (#20) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.59 (#8) | 2.89 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.33 (#14) | 3.92 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.722 (#1) | 0.603 (#38) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 41.9% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 12.7% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 33.7% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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