Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | MSST -175 MEM +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +5 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -2.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.3 (-16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -3.9 (+1.1) | 154.3 (-17.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -3.8 (+1.2) | 146.7 (-9.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -3.6 (+1.4) | 147.6 (-10.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -3.8 (+1.2) | 151.2 (-14.2) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2024 | MSST 79 – 66 MEM |
| Mar 28, 2021 | MEM 77 – 64 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-8 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.8 | 76.7 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#133) | 4.7 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#122) | 0.26 (#153) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#118) | 0.60 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#95) | 0.534 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 36.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 64.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 31.0% |
Game Analysis
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