What have I done? "Police On My Back" - The Clash
Humphrey Coliseum · December 20, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread MSST -3.5 Home covered
O/U 153.5 Under
Money MSST -175 / MEM +145
Model Predictions
Spread Total MSST win
Actual MSST +5 137 Won
Massey MSST -2.3 (+2.7)
Massey Totals 153.3 (-16.3)
Bradley-Terry 78%
Weighted B-T 77%
Efficiency Plus ML MSST -3.9 (+1.1) 154.3 (-17.3) 66%
Baseline Tuned ML MSST -3.8 (+1.2) 146.7 (-9.7) 66%
Baseline ML MSST -3.6 (+1.4) 147.6 (-10.6) 68%
Baseline Plus ML MSST -3.8 (+1.2) 151.2 (-14.2) 65%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 21, 2024 MSST 7966 MEM
Mar 28, 2021 MEM 7764 MSST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MSST MEM
Overall 13-19 13-19
Conference 5-13 8-10
Home 8-8 10-6
Away 4-6 3-10
Neutral 1-5 0-3
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L6 L1
Avg Pts For 77.6 75.2
Avg Pts Against 81.8 76.7
Massey 2.7 (#133) 4.7 (#108)
Bradley-Terry 0.73 (#122) 0.26 (#153)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.94 (#118) 0.60 (#140)
RPI 0.553 (#95) 0.534 (#112)
Shooting & Four Factors MSST MEM
FG% 45.0% 42.2%
3PT% 32.9% 30.9%
REB / G 40.4 37.2
OREB / G 11.4 14.0
AST / TO 1.13 1.01
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.7% 47.4%
TOV% 15.6% 18.7%
ORB% 29.8% 36.5%
FT Rate 21.4% 25.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.6% 49.0%
Opp TOV% 13.3% 18.4%
DRB% 70.4% 64.3%
Opp FT Rate 19.9% 31.0%

Game Analysis

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