Then she opened up a book of poems and handed it to me, written by an Italian poet from the thirteenth century. "Tangled Up in Blue" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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41–6 on winners spread MAE 8.5 47 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Akron @ Jackson State -7.0 149.7 25% 68–50 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Elon +5.9 132.4 70% 69–73 ✓
Kansas State @ Wichita State +2.2 153.0 59% 65–84 ✓
Oregon @ Stanford -3.9 148.0 28% 76–61 ✓
Bucknell @ Gonzaga +32.5 155.3 91% 65–86 ✓
Yale @ UTEP +1.6 143.3 57% 74–75 ✓
Cal Poly @ Omaha +1.6 154.0 56% 82–86 ✓
UC San Diego @ San Diego -12.8 138.0 14% 77–71 ✓
Utah Valley @ Weber State +0.3 139.2 51% 64–62 ✗
Portland State @ Cal State Bakersfield +5.0 146.9 69% 59–58 ✗
San Diego State @ California -2.8 145.4 39% 71–50 ✓
Kennesaw State @ San José State +3.5 147.1 68% 65–89 ✓
Illinois State @ Cornell +7.0 154.2 69% 80–77 ✗
Morgan State @ Iowa State +34.5 159.6 91% 72–99 ✓
Kent State @ Alabama +15.7 144.7 86% 54–81 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Oklahoma +25.7 150.8 91% 66–89 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Michigan +14.9 156.3 87% 58–89 ✓
New Hampshire @ Stonehill +11.0 135.6 86% 83–90 ✓
Bryant @ Towson +1.1 144.0 56% 65–70 ✓
Binghamton @ Army +5.5 148.1 69% 78–68 ✗
Sacred Heart @ Miami (OH) +5.6 142.2 72% 76–94 ✓
Illinois @ Missouri -0.6 153.6 44% 80–77 ✓
Iona @ Colgate +5.2 134.0 66% 79–73 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Missouri State +2.0 140.6 60% 56–68 ✓
Pennsylvania @ George Mason +21.4 131.3 90% 53–85 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Wisconsin +23.2 151.3 91% 53–76 ✓
Radford @ South Carolina +10.6 141.1 84% 48–74 ✓
Mercyhurst @ West Virginia +25.9 138.0 91% 46–67 ✓
Montana State @ TCU +8.7 139.0 79% 48–82 ✓
American University @ Virginia +12.1 126.6 86% 58–63 ✓
William & Mary @ VCU +17.8 149.7 88% 70–90 ✓
Brown @ Kansas +19.7 144.1 89% 53–87 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Rice +14.3 153.8 86% 46–64 ✓
Alcorn State @ UAB +17.5 150.6 87% 74–91 ✓
McNeese @ Louisiana -8.6 135.6 22% 64–56 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Oklahoma State +13.8 148.1 88% 74–86 ✓
Oregon State @ Charleston -7.7 137.6 24% 74–65 ✓
Houston Christian @ North Texas +20.4 125.9 89% 46–62 ✓
New Orleans @ LSU +28.0 150.4 91% 70–86 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Georgia +27.1 145.6 91% 65–81 ✓
Grambling @ Cincinnati +24.0 133.9 90% 49–84 ✓
Southern @ USC +12.8 142.6 85% 51–82 ✓
Saint Louis @ Grand Canyon +8.2 150.3 81% 72–73 ✓
Rider @ NC State +15.9 133.8 86% 63–89 ✓
Wyoming @ Cal State Fullerton -2.5 131.8 38% 73–69 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Oakland -4.4 133.0 39% 71–72 ✗
Le Moyne @ Notre Dame +15.1 145.2 87% 62–91 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.