Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -42.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +27 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -40.6 (-13.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.8 (+7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -34.5 (-7.5) | 159.6 (+11.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -34.6 (-7.6) | 160.4 (+10.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -26.0 (+1.0) | 162.0 (+9.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -27.7 (-0.7) | 160.2 (+10.8) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 7-7 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.3 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 82.8 |
| Massey | 20.2 (#7) | -16.1 (#357) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.05 (#4) | -3.14 (#352) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.92 (#4) | -3.82 (#347) |
| RPI | 0.620 (#27) | 0.300 (#364) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.3% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 26.6% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.85 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 32.2% |
Game Analysis
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