Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | CAL +180 SDSU -215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +21 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | SDSU -7.0 (-14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (-27.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -2.8 (-18.2) | 145.4 (-24.4) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -2.6 (-18.4) | 147.9 (-26.9) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -3.8 (-17.2) | 147.1 (-26.1) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -2.8 (-18.2) | 145.6 (-24.6) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2023 | SDSU 76 – 67 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 21-10 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 14-6 |
| Home | 11-6 | 12-3 |
| Away | 2-11 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#106) | 10.7 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#124) | 2.32 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#136) | 3.10 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#126) | 0.629 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 43.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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