What have I done? "Police On My Back" - The Clash
California Golden Bears
50 71
FINAL Neutral San Jose Tip-Off
San Diego State Aztecs
SAP Center at San Jose (Neutral) · December 22, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread SDSU -5.5 Away covered
O/U 144.5 Under
Money CAL +180 / SDSU -215
Model Predictions
Spread Total CAL win
Actual SDSU +21 121 Lost
Massey SDSU -7.0 (-14.0)
Massey Totals 148.4 (-27.4)
Bradley-Terry 16%
Weighted B-T 8%
Baseline Plus ML SDSU -2.8 (-18.2) 145.4 (-24.4) 39%
Baseline ML SDSU -2.6 (-18.4) 147.9 (-26.9) 41%
Baseline Tuned ML SDSU -3.8 (-17.2) 147.1 (-26.1) 36%
Efficiency Plus ML SDSU -2.8 (-18.2) 145.6 (-24.6) 35%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 26, 2023 SDSU 7667 CAL

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings CAL SDSU
Overall 14-19 21-10
Conference 6-14 14-6
Home 11-6 12-3
Away 2-11 6-4
Neutral 1-2 3-3
Last 5 2-3 4-1
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 75.6 69.8
Avg Pts Against 76.8 65.2
Massey 3.7 (#106) 10.7 (#50)
Bradley-Terry 0.64 (#124) 2.32 (#38)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.63 (#136) 3.10 (#45)
RPI 0.528 (#126) 0.629 (#21)
Shooting & Four Factors CAL SDSU
FG% 47.5% 46.0%
3PT% 38.1% 36.4%
REB / G 37.7 36.4
OREB / G 12.9 9.1
AST / TO 0.83 1.28
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.8% 52.3%
TOV% 19.3% 15.6%
ORB% 38.0% 27.5%
FT Rate 30.5% 18.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.0% 43.3%
Opp TOV% 16.8% 16.9%
DRB% 72.6% 67.3%
Opp FT Rate 22.7% 23.6%

Game Analysis

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