I'm the all night drug prowling wolf who looks so sick in sun / I'm the white man in the Palais "White Man in Hammersmith Palais" - The Clash
San Diego State Aztecs
76 67 OT
FINAL Neutral SoCal Showcase
California Golden Bears
Pavilion (Neutral) · November 26, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread SDSU -13.5 Away covered
O/U 142.5 Over
Money SDSU -1200 / CAL +850
Model Predictions
Spread Total SDSU win
Actual SDSU +9 143 Won
Massey SDSU -18.0 (-9.0)
Massey Totals 159.8 (-16.8)
Bradley-Terry 99%
Weighted B-T 100%
Baseline Plus ML SDSU -17.0 (-8.0) 149.1 (-6.1) 89%
Baseline ML SDSU -15.7 (-6.7) 151.8 (-8.8) 88%
Baseline Tuned ML SDSU -13.9 (-4.9) 152.4 (-9.4) 89%
Efficiency Plus ML SDSU -18.8 (-9.8) 150.2 (-7.2) 89%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 22, 2024 SDSU 7150 CAL

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SDSU CAL
Overall 26-11 13-19
Conference 11-7 9-11
Home 14-1 10-6
Away 6-8 3-8
Neutral 6-2 0-5
Last 5 4-1 1-4
Streak L1 L4
Avg Pts For 73.7 74.0
Avg Pts Against 67.4 77.0
Massey 13.0 (#21) -5.0 (#268)
Bradley-Terry 2.23 (#41) -2.04 (#317)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.64 (#36) -2.74 (#307)
RPI 0.661 (#23) 0.410 (#289)
Shooting & Four Factors SDSU CAL
FG% 46.5% 45.1%
3PT% 34.9% 34.6%
REB / G 38.0 36.2
OREB / G 12.0 11.7
AST / TO 1.40 0.66
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.8% 52.3%
TOV% 16.8% 21.2%
ORB% 32.6% 37.2%
FT Rate 31.4% 31.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.4% 52.1%
Opp TOV% 19.8% 16.4%
DRB% 71.4% 75.0%
Opp FT Rate 20.7% 27.3%

Game Analysis

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