Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 119.5 Over |
| Money | UVA -1400 AMER +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +5 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -14.4 (-9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 118.1 (+2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -12.1 (-7.1) | 126.6 (-5.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | UVA -13.5 (-8.5) | 126.2 (-5.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | UVA -11.0 (-6.0) | 127.7 (-6.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -12.4 (-7.4) | 128.1 (-7.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2025 | UVA 95 – 51 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-7 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#102) | -6.2 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#82) | 0.22 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.90 (#75) | 0.03 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#81) | 0.529 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 28.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 31.1% |
Game Analysis
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