The juice of the carrot, the smile of the parrot / A little drop of claret - anything that rocks "Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3" - Ian Dury & the Blockheads
John Paul Jones Arena · December 22, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread UVA -27.5 Home covered
O/U 153.5 Under
Money UVA -6500 / AMER +2000
Model Predictions
Spread Total UVA win
Actual UVA +44 146 Won
Massey UVA -22.8 (+21.2)
Massey Totals 160.6 (-14.6)
Bradley-Terry 98%
Weighted B-T 99%
Baseline Plus ML UVA -21.2 (+22.8) 152.6 (-6.6) 90%
Model 4 ML UVA -21.3 (+22.7) 150.1 (-4.1) 90%
Model 3 ML UVA -19.1 (+24.9) 151.9 (-5.9) 91%
Baseline ML UVA -20.7 (+23.3) 153.4 (-7.4) 90%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 22, 2024 UVA 6358 AMER

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UVA AMER
Overall 30-6 16-16
Conference 15-3 9-9
Home 16-1 11-6
Away 8-2 5-10
Neutral 6-3 0-0
Last 5 5-0 3-2
Streak L1 L3
Avg Pts For 80.4 72.0
Avg Pts Against 68.8 72.7
Massey 14.0 (#33) -4.6 (#239)
Bradley-Terry 2.42 (#37) -0.61 (#234)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.37 (#35) -0.96 (#235)
RPI 0.571 (#67) 0.470 (#232)
Shooting & Four Factors UVA AMER
FG% 48.5% 43.1%
3PT% 39.7% 35.0%
REB / G 41.3 30.5
OREB / G 14.6 8.9
AST / TO 1.68 1.01
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 57.3% 51.3%
TOV% 14.9% 16.6%
ORB% 41.7% 24.8%
FT Rate 27.8% 25.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.3% 54.7%
Opp TOV% 17.4% 20.1%
DRB% 68.6% 68.6%
Opp FT Rate 26.1% 35.9%

Game Analysis

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