Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | MOST +105 UCSB -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +12 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -0.0 (+12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (-21.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -2.0 (+10.0) | 140.6 (-16.6) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -1.6 (+10.4) | 140.4 (-16.4) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -2.0 (+10.0) | 140.1 (-16.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -1.8 (+10.2) | 139.1 (-15.1) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 11-9 |
| Home | 7-8 | 12-5 |
| Away | 1-12 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 69.4 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#187) | 2.6 (#122) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#206) | -0.09 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#176) | -0.22 (#181) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#179) | 0.465 (#242) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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