Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | ELON +110 UNCG -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ELON win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ELON +4 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | ELON -5.6 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.6 (+14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ELON -5.0 (-1.0) | 131.8 (+10.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ELON -1.8 (+2.2) | 135.4 (+6.6) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ELON -5.9 (-1.9) | 132.4 (+9.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ELON -5.3 (-1.3) | 132.2 (+9.8) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 8, 2025 | ELON 92 – 90 UNCG |
| Dec 10, 2023 | UNCG 82 – 73 ELON |
| Dec 3, 2022 | UNCG 65 – 61 ELON |
| Dec 1, 2021 | UNCG 74 – 61 ELON |
| Dec 19, 2020 | UNCG 71 – 64 ELON |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ELON | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-9 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#120) | 1.3 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#162) | -0.19 (#187) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#146) | -0.36 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#203) | 0.504 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ELON | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.8% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.7% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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