Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Over |
| Money | ELON +290 UNCG -350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ELON win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +7 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | ELON -6.8 (-13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.5 (+7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ELON -7.4 (-14.4) | 132.8 (+2.2) | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ELON -4.4 (-11.4) | 130.7 (+4.3) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ELON -7.3 (-14.3) | 134.4 (+0.6) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ELON -7.5 (-14.5) | 133.7 (+1.3) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 8, 2025 | ELON 92 – 90 UNCG |
| Dec 22, 2024 | ELON 73 – 69 UNCG |
| Dec 10, 2023 | UNCG 82 – 73 ELON |
| Dec 3, 2022 | UNCG 65 – 61 ELON |
| Dec 1, 2021 | UNCG 74 – 61 ELON |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ELON | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-9 | 21-9 |
| Conference | 4-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 4-2 | 7-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.7 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#167) | -3.0 (#202) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#46) | -0.51 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.18 (#49) | -0.91 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.694 (#17) | 0.435 (#228) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ELON | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 40.4% | 23.9% |
| REB / G | 26.5 | 42.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 15.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 30.1% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 80.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 50.0% | 35.4% |
Game Analysis
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