Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | ND -7500 LEM +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +29 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | ND -18.1 (+10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (+4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -15.1 (+13.9) | 145.2 (+7.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -13.6 (+15.4) | 144.4 (+8.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -14.6 (+14.4) | 144.6 (+8.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -15.2 (+13.8) | 146.6 (+6.4) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 4-12 |
| Home | 11-5 | 6-7 |
| Away | 3-9 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 81.4 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#90) | -8.3 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#149) | -1.03 (#267) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.10 (#103) | -1.59 (#275) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#137) | 0.445 (#273) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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