Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | VCU -3000 W&M +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +20 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -16.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.1 (+3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -17.8 (+2.2) | 149.7 (+10.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -16.5 (+3.5) | 149.2 (+10.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -16.3 (+3.7) | 151.0 (+9.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -17.5 (+2.5) | 154.8 (+5.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-1 | 12-2 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.0 | 78.5 |
| Massey | 9.3 (#61) | -3.3 (#223) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#113) | -0.87 (#252) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#94) | -0.67 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#104) | 0.431 (#294) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.1% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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