Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | USD +550 UCSD -900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +6 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSD -15.7 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (+10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -11.9 (+5.9) | 139.0 (+9.0) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -11.0 (+5.0) | 138.5 (+9.5) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -12.4 (+6.4) | 139.7 (+8.3) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -12.8 (+6.8) | 138.0 (+10.0) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | USD 82 – 80 UCSD |
| Nov 12, 2023 | UCSD 69 – 63 USD |
| Dec 13, 2022 | USD 84 – 58 UCSD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-27 | 30-5 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 18-2 |
| Home | 5-13 | 13-2 |
| Away | 0-12 | 12-2 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 63.0 |
| Massey | -10.2 (#329) | 9.7 (#56) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.73 (#343) | 2.21 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.87 (#336) | 2.05 (#72) |
| RPI | 0.347 (#355) | 0.584 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 26.4% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 23.7% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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