Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | UCSD -1200 USD +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USD +2 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSD -20.3 (-22.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (+6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -20.6 (-22.6) | 150.1 (+11.9) | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -18.0 (-20.0) | 149.4 (+12.6) | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -19.7 (-21.7) | 149.6 (+12.4) | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -20.4 (-22.4) | 150.0 (+12.0) | 90% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2024 | UCSD 77 – 71 USD |
| Nov 12, 2023 | UCSD 69 – 63 USD |
| Dec 13, 2022 | USD 84 – 58 UCSD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | USD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-5 | 9-8 |
| Away | 8-5 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 78.8 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#59) | -5.9 (#265) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.59 (#32) | -1.13 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.16 (#45) | -1.36 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.640 (#21) | 0.412 (#315) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | USD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.8% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 39.0% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 29.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.2% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 60.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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