Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | UCSD -215 USD +178 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +6 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -5.3 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (-20.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -5.9 (+0.1) | 147.6 (-15.6) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -4.9 (+1.1) | 147.1 (-15.1) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | USD 82 – 80 UCSD |
| Dec 22, 2024 | UCSD 77 – 71 USD |
| Dec 13, 2022 | USD 84 – 58 UCSD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | USD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 7-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-6 |
| Away | 7-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 78.1 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#182) | 6.2 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#104) | 0.38 (#148) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#96) | 0.58 (#139) |
| RPI | — | 0.500 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | USD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.8% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 41.2% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 48.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.50 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.2% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 11.1% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 47.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.7% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 48.9% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.2% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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