Betting Lines
| Spread | USD -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | USD -250 UCSD +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USD +26 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | USD -7.5 (+18.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (-4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USD -5.6 (+20.4) | 142.5 (-0.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USD -5.0 (+21.0) | 145.3 (-3.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USD -5.3 (+20.7) | 144.4 (-2.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USD -5.7 (+20.3) | 145.2 (-3.2) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | USD 82 – 80 UCSD |
| Dec 22, 2024 | UCSD 77 – 71 USD |
| Nov 12, 2023 | UCSD 69 – 63 USD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 4-12 | 5-13 |
| Home | 8-9 | 4-10 |
| Away | 3-8 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.6 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#239) | -5.8 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#260) | -0.65 (#244) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#226) | -1.03 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#249) | 0.443 (#266) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.5% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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