Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -21.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | UAB -6000 ALCN +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +17 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | UAB -16.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.6 (+8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAB -14.7 (+2.3) | 151.1 (+13.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAB -15.9 (+1.1) | 151.8 (+13.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAB -17.5 (-0.5) | 150.6 (+14.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UAB -14.7 (+2.3) | 152.1 (+12.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 17, 2023 | UAB 80 – 77 ALCN |
| Nov 25, 2020 | UAB 99 – 50 ALCN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAB | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-4 | 6-3 |
| Away | 7-6 | 5-17 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#172) | -13.4 (#350) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.38 (#295) | -2.70 (#342) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.49 (#268) | -3.82 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#300) | 0.455 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAB | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 35.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 41.4 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 15.4 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 40.5% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 38.3% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 58.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 64.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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