Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | NCSU -5000 RID +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +26 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -18.8 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.4 (+23.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -15.9 (+10.1) | 133.8 (+18.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -15.3 (+10.7) | 132.9 (+19.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -15.3 (+10.7) | 133.9 (+18.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -17.7 (+8.3) | 134.1 (+17.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | RID |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 9-11 |
| Home | 12-6 | 5-7 |
| Away | 0-11 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#94) | -9.3 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#132) | -1.67 (#309) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#113) | -2.54 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#168) | 0.416 (#315) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | RID |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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