Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | GMU -2500 PENN +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +32 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -22.5 (+9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.3 (+2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -18.1 (+13.9) | 135.7 (+2.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -18.9 (+13.1) | 133.6 (+4.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -20.7 (+11.3) | 133.2 (+4.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -21.4 (+10.6) | 131.3 (+6.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 28, 2025 | GMU 83 – 79 PENN |
| Nov 13, 2021 | GMU 87 – 66 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 8-19 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 4-10 |
| Home | 18-2 | 5-8 |
| Away | 7-6 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.0 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#77) | -11.1 (#336) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#169) | -1.77 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.10 (#102) | -2.38 (#317) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#176) | 0.392 (#337) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 33.0% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.2% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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