Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Over |
| Money | GMU -330 PENN +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +21 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -23.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -19.0 (+2.0) | 145.9 (+7.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -23.6 (-2.6) | 142.5 (+10.5) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 28, 2025 | GMU 83 – 79 PENN |
| Dec 22, 2024 | GMU 85 – 53 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 12-16 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 9-5 |
| Home | 10-4 | 6-3 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#84) | -7.1 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#60) | -0.34 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#70) | -0.53 (#234) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.5% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 44.0 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.2% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 31.7% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 4.9% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.1% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 81.8% | 42.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 3.1% | 32.0% |
Game Analysis
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