Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -34.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +21 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -32.7 (-11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.8 (-7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -32.5 (-11.5) | 155.3 (-4.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -32.0 (-11.0) | 154.3 (-3.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -24.2 (-3.2) | 154.7 (-3.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -28.1 (-7.1) | 158.4 (-7.4) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-2 | 12-4 |
| Away | 7-2 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.4 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 23.8 (#4) | -4.7 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#26) | -0.95 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.01 (#17) | -1.19 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.672 (#6) | 0.470 (#227) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.7% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 2.00 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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